Kaspi.kz Stock Drops 32% as Turkey Expansion Fears Overshadow Robust Kazakhstan Core

What happened

Kaspi.kz's stock has declined 32% to around $73, driven by market concerns over its Turkish expansion via Hepsiburada and the pending, regulatory-gated Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition. Despite this sell-off, the core Kazakhstan business remains strong, with 3Q 2025 showing double-digit growth in payments TPV (+18% YoY), marketplace GMV (+12% YoY), and fintech TFV (+16% YoY), alongside a 12% rise in consolidated net income. A Seeking Alpha article highlights a projected 9% 2026 dividend yield as a potential floor, but the DeepValue report cautions that this yield depends on sustained Kazakhstan profitability, which faces cyclical and competitive risks. The Turkey venture introduces significant execution challenges, with Hepsiburada reporting widening losses and the Rabobank deal timeline pushed to mid-2026, creating uncertainty. Overall, the market's excessive discount may offer value if Kazakhstan's growth persists and Turkey risks are contained, but investors must vigilantly monitor operational checkpoints.

Implication

The sharp stock decline reflects heightened skepticism about Kaspi.kz's ability to replicate its Kazakhstan success in Turkey, making valuations like P/E 6.1 and EV/EBITDA 5.2 appear cheap if core growth continues. However, the projected 9% dividend yield, while offering downside protection, is not guaranteed and hinges on Kazakhstan maintaining profitability amidst increasing competition and economic headwinds. Turkey's expansion remains a binary risk; any further delays in the Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition beyond mid-2026 or sustained losses at Hepsiburada could erode investor confidence and pressure the stock. Key near-term catalysts, such as the FY2025 results and Hepsiburada's Q1-Q2 2026 performance, will provide critical insights into integration progress and margin stabilization. Therefore, a prudent approach involves monitoring these milestones closely and sizing positions to account for the bear case where both Kazakhstan and Turkey underperform simultaneously.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article adds a dividend yield narrative as a defensive layer, but it does not materially alter the core thesis that Kaspi.kz's investment case hinges on Kazakhstan sustaining double-digit growth and Turkey's execution risks being managed. Investors should view the yield as a potential buffer, but the primary drivers remain the operational health of Kazakhstan and the timeline for Turkey's bank-led monetization.