Kaspi.kz Submits 2025 Annual Report, Critical for Growth and Türkiye Strategy Assessment

What happened

Kaspi.kz has filed its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, with the SEC, a routine but essential disclosure. This follows strong third-quarter 2025 results where Kazakhstan payments, marketplace, and fintech volumes grew 12-18% year-over-year and consolidated net income rose 12%. The full-year report provides the first comprehensive look at whether this momentum held through the fourth quarter amid rising investor caution over fintech growth. Investors must scrutinize the document for updates on the Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition timeline, slated for mid-2026 closure and critical for Türkiye expansion, and for details on Hepsiburada's financial drag. This filing marks a key validation point for Kaspi.kz's investment thesis, which relies on Kazakhstan's flywheel funding controlled Türkiye investments.

Implication

With full-year 2025 figures now official, investors can evaluate whether Kazakhstan's double-digit volume growth and profitability persisted, supporting the undervaluation thesis. Key metrics to monitor include TPV, GMV, TFV trends and consolidated net income, which must align with 3Q 2025's strength to maintain confidence. The report should clarify the scale of losses from Hepsiburada and any management guidance on margin stabilization in Türkiye, as sustained losses could erode the balance sheet advantage. Updates on the Rabobank A.Ş. acquisition are paramount; any delay beyond mid-2026 would de-rate Türkiye optionality and postpone fintech monetization. Given the stock's low P/E of 6.1, positive data could trigger a rebound, while disappointments may confirm bearish narratives about growth deceleration and execution risks.

Thesis delta

The filing itself does not shift the core thesis, which remains that KSPI is undervalued if Kazakhstan sustains double-digit growth and Türkiye expansion stays on track. However, the data within the report will either reinforce this view by confirming 2025 performance or weaken it if key metrics like volume growth or Rabobank A.Ş. timelines disappoint. Investors should adjust their outlook based on whether the report shows Kazakhstan's flywheel intact and Türkiye drag bounded, as these are the thesis's critical assumptions.