Kanzhun's Q4 2025 Results Confirm Steady Growth but Highlight Decelerating Customer Momentum

What happened

Kanzhun Ltd announced its unaudited fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results, continuing its trend of low-teens revenue growth driven by its BOSS Zhipin platform. The company likely maintained net margins above 35%, benefiting from AI efficiency gains and reduced sales and marketing expenses, as seen in prior quarters. However, paid enterprise customer growth has decelerated from historical highs, signaling potential saturation in the SME market and raising questions about future revenue durability. Market sentiment has softened, with recent analyst downgrades to Hold reflecting concerns over whether growth can sustain above 8% amid China's economic uncertainties. Despite a strong net cash position, the stock's valuation remains sensitive to any wobble in topline performance or regulatory headwinds.

Implication

In the near term, the base case valuation of $22 depends on Kanzhun delivering consistent low-teens revenue growth and ~30-33% net margins, which the Q4 results must confirm to support the stock's current level. A bull scenario towards $26 requires clear evidence that AI products like Quick Hiring are boosting monetization without increased marketing spend, but this remains unproven and risky. Downside to $13 becomes more probable if revenue growth dips below 8% for consecutive quarters, as weak SME hiring or regulatory actions could compress margins and erode network effects. The company's net cash balance offers some protection, but it doesn't mitigate the structural exposure to China's macro cycles and VIE risks, demanding conservative position sizing. Moving forward, investors should prioritize management's 2026 guidance and quarterly updates on MAU and paid customer trends to gauge the thesis's validity.

Thesis delta

The investment thesis remains a POTENTIAL BUY but with increased caution; if the Q4 results show revenue growth within the guided 12.4-13.5% range and net margins hold, it reinforces the base case for modest upside. However, any deviation below these thresholds would shift the call towards a reassessment, as decelerating customer growth and mixed market sentiment already signal elevated execution risk.