Judgment: HOLD Novavax has meaningful optionality—full FDA approval for Nuvaxovid in high‑risk populations, one of only three U.S.-authorized COVID vaccines, a capital‑light Sanofi partnership ex‑U.S., and a leaner cost base with solid liquidity. However, competitive pressure and a narrower U.S. label vs. mRNA peers cap near‑term share; the key flu/CIC programs face regulatory overhang from the Oct 2024 clinical hold; and valuation signals are mixed (low P/E but negative EV/EBITDA and DCF below price). Until there is clearer visibility on combo/flu progress and sustained commercial traction, risk/reward looks balanced. WATCH ITEMS: • FDA status and clinical data for CIC and stand‑alone influenza (resolution of the Oct 2024 hold and Phase 3 readouts). Lifted hold with strong efficacy/safety and a clear regulatory path would tilt to BUY; prolonged hold or adverse data would push to SELL. • Sanofi execution ex‑U.S. (royalties/milestones and reported Nuvaxovid sales ramp). Demonstrated traction and cash flows would support a BUY; weak rollout or partnership setbacks would argue for SELL. • U.S. booster season dynamics and label evolution (ACIP guidance, 2025–2026 uptake within high‑risk label, any label expansion). Strong uptake or broader labeling would support a BUY; muted demand or restrictive guidance would move to SELL.