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ENERGY FUELS INC (UUUU)
Nov 19, 2025 09:23 UTC
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Judgment: HOLD
Energy Fuels offers a unique strategic asset in White Mesa—the only operating conventional U.S. uranium mill with integrated REE recovery—plus visibility from four long‑term uranium contracts (160,000 lbs expected in Q4 2025; 620,000–880,000 lbs in 2026). Phase 1 REE separation is commissioned with NdPr qualified into commercial magnets, and HMS/monazite assets could underpin feed. However, profitability remains weak (Q3‑2025 net loss $16.74M; recent negative FCF), HMS showed no gross profit YTD, and management guides minimal REE profits until 2027–2028, all while execution, permitting and financing risks (Donald/Toliara, Phase 2) remain. Given the negative earnings profile and integration risk against a supportive uranium backdrop, the risk/reward is balanced pending de‑risking.
WATCH ITEMS:
• Donald and Toliara milestones: Achieve timely FIDs, permits, and financing to secure monazite feed; would de‑risk REE scaling and could justify a BUY. Material delays or adverse terms would tilt to SELL/REDUCE.
• REE commercialization: Binding NdPr (and later Dy/Tb) offtake contracts and sustained Phase 1 throughput (inventory drawdown, regular shipments). Successful offtakes and throughput ramp ahead of plan could move to BUY; failure to secure offtake despite qualification would push to SELL.
• Uranium delivery execution and contracting: Meet or exceed 2025–2026 delivery targets with improving realized pricing/margins and add contracts through 2030; strong execution supports an upgrade to BUY. Missed delivery schedules or margin compression would warrant a downgrade.
📸 Company Snapshot
Market Cap
$2.59 Bn
Sector
Unknown
Current Stock Price (P/E)
USD 15.05 (P/E: -35.82)
[1]
Business Model
Energy Fuels reports three segments — uranium, rare earth elements (REE), and heavy mineral sands (HMS) — and conducts conventional and in situ recovery uranium extraction, recovery and sales, alongside REE and HMS activities and the recycling of alternate feed at the White Mesa Mill.
[2]
The White Mesa Mill is the only operating conventional uranium mill and the only uranium, vanadium and REE recovery facility operating in the U.S., licensed to produce over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year.[3]
🧾 Bottom Line
Four long-term uranium contracts with U.S. utilities provide base deliveries through 2030; management disclosed expected uranium sales of 160,000 lbs in Q4 2025 and 620,000–880,000 lbs in 2026, giving near-term visibility.
[2]
Phase 1 REE separation at White Mesa is commissioned and produced ~38 tonnes of separated NdPr in 2024, with qualification into commercial-scale permanent magnets achieved, supporting expansion into non‑China REE supply chains.[3]
[2]
Portfolio expansion via the Base Resources acquisition (~$178.44M) and the Donald Project JV adds HMS/monazite/REE assets to underpin monazite feed for REE separation at the Mill.[3]
[3]
Entry into targeted alpha therapy (TAT) radioisotopes advanced via the RadTran acquisition and intent to pilot Ra‑226 production, broadening optionality in medical isotopes subject to permitting, offtake and financing.[3]
[3]
💊 Financial Health
5-Year FCF Trend
22.58M
-9.01M
-40.60M
2022-12-31
2024-03-31
2025-09-30
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.85x
Interest Coverage
N/A
[1]
🏰 Moat & Strategy Signals
Moat Type
Only operating conventional U.S. uranium mill with integrated uranium/vanadium/REE recovery and >8M lbs U3O8/yr licensed capacity provides unique processing optionality.
[3]
Evidence
Phase 1 REE separation commissioned to process 8,000–10,000 tpa monazite into 850–1,000 tpa separated NdPr, evidencing progress toward an integrated U.S. REE supply chain with HMS/monazite sources.
[2]
Durability Outlook
Planned Phase 2 aims for 4,000–6,000 tpa separated NdPr and heavy RE oxides (Dy, Tb), subject to licensing, financing and feed availability, indicating a multi‑year scaling roadmap.
[2]
🌍 Industry Positioning
Tailwinds
Resurgence in nuclear energy and increased long‑term utility contracting, alongside policy and supply shifts away from Russia, support uranium fundamentals.
[2]
The 2024 Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act restricting Russian LEU imports further elevates domestic front‑end value.[4]
U.S. utilities purchased 55.9M lbs U3O8e in 2024 at a $52.71/lb average, reinforcing multi‑year demand visibility.[5]
Headwinds
HMS revenues reflect the wind‑down of Kwale with no gross profit on HMS sales in the nine months ended Sep 30, 2025, and management expects minimal REE profits until higher throughput in 2027–2028.
[2]
[2]
Peer Positioning
Other U.S. conventional mills (Shootaring, Sweetwater) were on standby at end‑2024, highlighting White Mesa’s differentiated operating status.
[6]
For REE, MP Materials (Mountain Pass) and Lynas (Mt Weld/LAMP) anchor non‑China supply chains, with Energy Fuels adding U.S. separation capacity at White Mesa.[7]
[8]