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BARRETT BUSINESS SERVICES INC (BBSI)

Nov 19, 2025 09:26 UTC

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Judgment: HOLD Steady execution (2024 revenue ~$1.15B, net income ~$53M; Q3’25 net income ~$20.6M) and a clean balance sheet (net cash, no LOC borrowings) support the story, and the high-touch model with captive insurance provides stickiness. However, risk/reward looks balanced: P/E ~16.7 is reasonable but EV/EBITDA ~30.6 is rich for thin-margin PEO economics, free cash flow is variable, and geographic concentration is high (≈72% of 2024 revenue from California), keeping regulatory and workers’ comp exposure elevated. WATCH ITEMS: • Workers’ compensation loss experience and reserve development: sustained improvement that expands margins and reduces volatility would tilt to BUY; adverse development would push to SELL. • Worksite employee/payroll growth and admin-fee/pricing: accelerating volumes with stable pricing/margins would justify a BUY; stagnation or pricing pressure would argue for a more cautious stance. • California regulatory/insurance backdrop: favorable WC rate environment or diversification away from CA would de-risk and support a BUY; adverse CA policy changes or claim severity spikes would drive a SELL/REDUCE.

📸 Company Snapshot

Market Cap

$953.74 Mn

Sector

Unknown

Current Stock Price (P/E)

35.71 (16.73)
[1]

Business Model

Leading provider of business management solutions for small and mid-sized companies delivered through a decentralized, high-touch local team model that integrates HR outsourcing tools with a knowledge-based management platform; one operating/reportable segment focused on these services.
[2]

🧾 Bottom Line

Total revenues of 1,144,531 (in thousands) and net income of 52,993 (in thousands) for 2024; professional employer services revenue was 1,063,386 (in thousands) and staffing services revenue was 81,145 (in thousands). Management concluded ICFR was effective as of December 31, 2024, with an unqualified auditor opinion.
[2]

💊 Financial Health

5-Year FCF Trend

60.94M
5.77M
-49.40M
2022-12-31
2024-03-31
2025-09-30

Net Debt / EBITDA

-0.43x

Interest Coverage

-730.25x

🏰 Moat & Strategy Signals

Moat Type

High-touch localized service model and integrated risk management via captive insurance; switching costs/regulatory complexity from co-employment and bundled compliance/benefits.
[2]

Evidence

Decentralized delivery with local teams typically within 50 miles of clients; wholly owned insurance entities (AICE and Ecole) to access competitive workers’ compensation markets.
[2]

Durability Outlook

Execution-dependent; regional concentration with approximately 72% of 2024 revenue from California increases exposure to state regulatory and workers’ compensation dynamics.
[2]

🌍 Industry Positioning

Tailwinds

SMBs outsource HR/payroll, workers’ compensation, and compliance to PEOs under co-employment, benefiting from regulatory complexity and benefits scale.
[3]

Headwinds

Workers’ compensation loss severity/frequency, PEO client benefit cost inflation, multi-jurisdiction compliance, and macro sensitivity of client payroll volumes; BBSI also cites interest rate risk to its investment portfolio.
[4]

Peer Positioning

Competes in a field that includes public PEOs/HR providers TriNet and Insperity, which emphasize technology, plan design, and sales coverage.
[5]