Judgment: HOLD NVIDIA’s full‑stack AI platform, one‑year data center cadence, and broad OEM/CSP distribution are driving exceptional scale and profitability (Data Center strength, >70% GAAP gross margins, robust FCF, minimal net leverage). However, the stock trades at a rich multiple (P/E ~51; EV/EBITDA ~35) and ~30% above a DCF anchor, while near‑term outcomes remain sensitive to CoWoS/HBM supply and fluid China export‑license dynamics (e.g., H20 charges). With Blackwell/NVL36/NVL72 ramps underway but still supply‑ and policy‑gated, risk‑reward looks balanced at current levels. WATCH ITEMS: • CoWoS/HBM supply and yields: Faster relief (TSMC CoWoS expansions, 12‑high HBM3e mainstreaming) enabling Blackwell shipments and sustaining ≥73% GM would tilt to BUY; persistent bottlenecks or yield issues causing misses vs guidance would tilt to SELL. • China export‑license outcomes for H20‑class products: Easing/approvals unlocking shipments and reversing reserves would improve visibility and push toward BUY; tighter controls leading to further inventory/obligation charges and demand loss would push toward SELL. • Competitive share and pricing: CSP adoption of Blackwell vs AMD MI350/MI350X and Intel Gaudi 3; if NVIDIA defends share and pricing with increasing software attach (AI Enterprise/DGX Cloud), we could upgrade to BUY; if rivals win key sockets and drive margin compression below guidance, we’d move to SELL.