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JFrog Ltd (FROG)
Nov 17, 2025 15:03 UTC
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Judgment: HOLD
JFrog’s platform breadth and hybrid delivery are well aligned with strong secular tailwinds in software supply chain security and AI governance, supported by solid execution (FY2025 revenue guide $523–$525M, RPO $508M) and strong liquidity ($651M cash) with improving FCF (FY2024 FCF $107.8M). However, valuation offers limited margin of safety (current price above DCF intrinsic ~$55.57, negative GAAP earnings/P-E -86.8) amid intense competition and ongoing SBC-driven dilution, warranting patience for a better entry or clearer operating leverage.
WATCH ITEMS:
• Growth durability and guidance execution: Q4/FY2025 revenue vs. guidance, NDR (~116%) and Enterprise+ mix. Beat/raise with sustained >20% YoY growth would tilt to BUY; deceleration would push toward SELL.
• Profitability and dilution: FCF margin expansion, non-GAAP operating income trajectory, path to GAAP breakeven, and SBC as % of revenue. Clear operating leverage and moderating SBC would shift to BUY; margin/FCF setbacks or persistent dilution to SELL.
• Product adoption and cross-sell: Uptake of AppTrust, Runtime Security, and AI Catalog, plus CRA/NIS2-driven compliance wins and attach to Artifactory. Strong attach/ARR and RPO growth support a BUY; weak adoption vs. rivals would keep HOLD or move to SELL.
📸 Company Snapshot
Market Cap
$6.48 Bn
Sector
Software & Services
Current Stock Price (P/E)
59.09 (P/E: -86.82)
[1]
Business Model
Hybrid, universal, end-to-end software supply chain platform (DevOps/DevSecOps/MLOps) serving as a single source of truth from code to production; delivered as SaaS and self-managed deployments
[2]
; recent expansion into runtime security and AI/ML model lifecycle governance complements artifact management, security scanning, and distribution [3]
; [4]
.🧾 Bottom Line
Platform breadth across artifact, security, governance, and AI/ML model delivery aligns with enterprise toolchain consolidation and heightened software supply chain assurance priorities; security software spend is projected to rise ~15% YoY to ~$100–101B in 2025, supporting demand for integrated DevSecOps platforms
[5]
; [6]
. Management emphasizes an “EveryOps” vision and hybrid delivery to support cloud and self-managed needs.[2]
💊 Financial Health
5-Year FCF Trend
49.75M
24.44M
-0.86M
2022-12-31
2024-03-31
2025-09-30
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.52x
Interest Coverage
N/A
[1]
🏰 Moat & Strategy Signals
Moat Type
End-to-end, unified platform centered on a universal artifact repository with broad ecosystem integrations and hybrid deployment options
[2]
; [7]
.Evidence
Platform connects curation, dependency management, security scanning, distribution, and deployment with universal package support and native security (e.g., Advanced Security, Runtime Security), plus integrations that embed into developer/security workflows
[2]
; [7]
; [3]
.Durability Outlook
Provenance/SBOM momentum and AI model governance increase the value of artifact-centric systems of record; management expects “EveryOps” positioning to endure as software and AI-generated components scale
[8]
; [9]
; [2]
.🌍 Industry Positioning
Tailwinds
Supply-chain threat salience, SBOM/provenance adoption, and EU/UK policy momentum (CRA, NIS2) drive secure pipeline uptake; AI/ML adoption increases software production complexity and governance needs
[10]
; [11]
; [12]
; [8]
; [2]
.Headwinds
Fragmented standards (SBOM/provenance), operational burden to reach higher SLSA levels, and intense competition from point solutions and cloud providers slow/complicate adoption
[9]
; [2]
.Peer Positioning
Direct repository competitors include Sonatype Nexus; broader CI/CD peers include CircleCI and TeamCity; platform competition spans GitHub, GitLab, cloud providers (AWS/Azure/GCP), and diversified vendors (IBM/Red Hat, Broadcom VMware), per company disclosures and industry references
[13]
; [2]
.